Enlargement of the European Union

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The European Union (EU) was created by six founding states in 1957 (following the earlier establishment by the same six states of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1952) and has grown to 27 member states. There have been five enlargements, with the largest occurring on May 1, 2004, when 10 new member states joined, and the most recent on January 1, 2007, when Bulgaria and Romania joined.

Currently, accession negotiations are underway with several states. The process of enlargement is sometimes referred to as European integration. However, this term is also used to refer to the intensification of cooperation between EU member states as national governments allow for the gradual centralising of power within European institutions.

In order to join the European Union, a state needs to fulfill the economic and political conditions generally known as the Copenhagen criteria (after the Copenhagen summit in June 1993), which require a secular, democratic government, the rule of law, and its corresponding freedoms and institutions. According to the EU Treaty, each current member state and also the European Parliament have to agree to any enlargement.

The present EU Treaty - the Treaty of Nice - does not provide for the voting arrangements to be adopted for more than the present 27 members. Although the proposed European Constitution did provide such a mechanism, it was abandoned after referenda in two countries prevented its ratification. The newly signed Treaty of Lisbon provides this mechanism, but has yet to be ratified.

Enlargement may lead to negative commercial consequences for other WTO Member States. The EU and the US have agreed in March 2006 to provide compensation for negative consequences associated with the 2004 enlargement.^[1]

[edit] Historical enlargements

Enlargement, 1957 to 2007
     European Communities     European Union

Chart of the Population Development of the EU affiliated with the enlargement process.

The European Expansion Coin

Main article: History of the European Union

Full timeline of past enlargements (and secessions) along with fixed future events;

• 23 July 1952; The Treaty of Paris entered into force, establishing the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). Founding members were the Benelux countries (Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg), France, Italy, and West Germany.
• 1 January 1958; The Treaty of Rome entered into force, establishing the European Economic Community (EEC), which later becomes the European Community (EC).
• 5 July 1962; Algeria gains independence from France and leaves the EEC.
• 1 January 1973 (First Enlargement); Denmark, Ireland, and the United Kingdom accede to the EC (Norway signed the treaty but failed to ratify due to a negative opinion in a national referendum on accession).
• 1 January 1981 (Second Enlargement); Greece accedes to the EC.
• 1985; Granted home rule by Denmark six years earlier, Greenland decides to leave the EC following a referendum. (See member state territories).
• 1 January 1986 (Third Enlargement); Portugal and Spain accede to the EC.
• 3 October 1990; East Germany and West Germany reunify (see German reunification), which increased the territory of the EC without changing the number of member states.
• 1 November 1993; The Maastricht Treaty takes effect, formally establishing the European Union.
• 1 January 1995 (Fourth Enlargement) — Austria, Finland, and Sweden, accede to the EU.
• 1 May 2004 (Fifth Enlargement, part I);^[2] Comprising the largest number of countries ever admitted at one time, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia accede to the EU at a ceremony in Dublin.
• 1 January 2007 (Fifth Enlargement, part II); Bulgaria and Romania join.
• On 15 December 2008, The Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius will become part of the Netherlands as special municipalities. The government of the Netherlands is currently investigating the consequences of a change of status within the European Union for these islands. They are currently listed as overseas countries and territories in Annex II of the Treaty of Rome and as such are not considered part of the EU. The islands are opting to become an outermost region of the EU, the same status the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands and the French overseas departments have. European commissioner Danuta Hübner has said before the European Parliament that she doesn't expect many problems to occur with such a status change, as the islands' population only consists of some 30,000 people. As the islands are currently listed in an Annex of the Treaty of Rome, the treaty needs to be changed before the new status can take effect.^[3]

The fifth enlargement, considering the number of new members, was celebrated by almost all countries of the union with the minting of special, high value, commemorative coins. Among them is the Belgian 100 euro European Union Expansion Coin. The reverse of the coin shows the new map of the union with the names of the ten new countries.

[edit] Criteria and methods

Population and GDP per capita of EU member states and some candidates.

In 1989, the European Community's Phare program was created. It aimed to provide financial support for potential accession countries so that they could expand and reform their economies. To join the EU an applicant country must meet the following Copenhagen criteria established by the European Council in 1993:

• Stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities.
• The existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union.
• The ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.

In December 1995, the Madrid European Council revised the membership criteria to include conditions for member country integration through the appropriate adjustment of its administrative structures: since it is important that European Community legislation be reflected in national legislation, it is critical that the revised national legislation be implemented effectively through appropriate administrative and judicial structures.

In order to assess progress achieved by countries in preparing for accession to the European Union, the European Commission submits 'Regular Reports' to the European Council. These serve as the basis upon which the Council takes decisions on negotiations or their extension to other candidates. Since 1993, the Commission has presented a complete set of Regular Reports on a yearly basis, covering the 10 now member countries in Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) as well as Cyprus, Malta and Turkey.

[edit] Candidate countries

     current members      candidate countries      potential candidate countries      application frozen as negotiations rejected in a referendum      application rejected by the EC      accession rejected in two referenda (1972 and 1994)

[edit] Croatia

Main article: Accession of Croatia to the European Union

Croatia applied for EU membership in 2003, and the European Commission recommended making it an official candidate in early 2004. Candidate country status was granted to Croatia by the European Council (the EU's heads of government) in mid-2004 and a date for the beginning of entry negotiations, while originally set for early 2005, was postponed to October of the same year. Following the opening of accession negotiations on October 3 2005, the process of screening 33 acquis chapters with Croatia was completed on October 18 2006.

After Slovenia, Croatia has recovered best from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia and so hopes to become the second former Yugoslav state to become a member. It has a stable market economy, and has had better statistical indicators than Bulgaria and Romania which joined in 2007.

In late 2005, the EU officials projected that the accession of Croatia would likely happen between 2010 and 2012. In October 2006, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn stated: "If Croatia will be able to reform its judiciary and economy with rigour and resolution, then it is likely to be ready around the end of this decade."^[4] In any case, the EU needs to consider its internal problems before accommodating any new member after Bulgaria and Romania; under the current Treaty of Nice, the EU cannot have more than 27 members. The EU Constitution provided one solution to this problem, but its rejection by two member states in referendums means that other solutions are required. The new Treaty of Lisbon would solve its internal issues and therefore clear the way for accession. A likely date for this treaty entering into force after end of negotiations is 1 January 2009.

The finalisation of all chapters of the acquis communautaire is expected in September 2009, while signing the accession treaty would happen in the year after. Before starting negotiations with Croatia, the acquis was divided into 35 chapters, 4 more than the usual 31; the new chapters, previously part of the agricultural policy, are areas expected to be troublesome, as they were with the other applicants. Croatia is expected to be a full EU member by 2010^[5].

[edit] Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Main article: Accession of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to the European Union

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia applied to become an official candidate on March 22, 2004. On November 9, 2005 the European Commission recommended that it become a candidate state. EU leaders agreed to this recommendation on December 17, formally naming the country as an official candidate, but no date for starting negotiations has been announced yet.

The country has a dispute with its southern neighbour and current EU member, Greece, over the name Macedonia (see: Macedonia naming dispute). Because of this, the EU recognises the country as the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and this is the only denotation by which the country may hold negotiations with the EU. Resolution of this issue is technically not a precondition for membership,^[6] but Greece and Cyprus have stated that they will veto the country's accession unless an agreement on the naming issue is reached.^{[citation needed]}

Peace is maintained with underlying ethnic tensions over Albanians in the west that achieved greater autonomy through the implementation of the Ohrid Accords. Unlike Serbia, it has maintained sovereignty over all its territory. Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski has suggested that the country could join in 2012 or 2013.^[7] However, the EU has not come out with any official recognition of this suggested time period.

On December 17, 2005 the European Council welcomed and congratulated the country's achievements in implementing multiple reforms and agreements (Copenhagen criteria, Stabilisation and Association process, Ohrid Agreement). It supports the continuation of this process. Further concrete steps in the country's EU membership (i.e. commencing of negotiations) will be possible after the debate on the general Enlargement policy of the EU. The Council notes also that the absorption capacity of the EU will be taken into account.^[8]

In 2008, Athens said it will block Macedonia's NATO and European Union accession until the two agree on a name for Greece's northern neighbour, which broke away from Yugoslavia in 1991.

Greece rejects the name Macedonia because it says it implies territorial ambitions towards Greece's own northern province of Macedonia, birthplace of Alexander the Great.

Dora Bakoyannis, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Greece, accused Macedonia of "an intransigent stance and its action of an irredentist and nationalistic logic".

"I underlined that the intransigence that has persisted to date ... has left us with no other choice," she said. "We are not happy about that. Nobody likes vetoes."

^[9]

[edit] Turkey

Main article: Accession of Turkey to the European Union

The status of Turkey with regard to the EU has become a matter of major significance and considerable controversy in recent years. Turkey is one of the founding members of the Council of Europe since 1949 and has been an associate member of the European Union and its predecessors since 1964 following the signing of the EEC-Turkey Association Agreement (Ankara Agreement) in 1963. The country formally applied for full membership on April 14, 1987, but 12 years passed before it was recognised as a candidate country at the Helsinki Summit in 1999. After a summit in Brussels on December 17, 2004, the European Council announced that membership negotiations with Turkey were officially opened on October 3, 2005. The screening process which began on October 20, 2005 was completed on October 18 2006.

Turkey, classified as a developed country by the CIA,^[10] with the seventh largest economy in the Council of Europe and the fifteenth largest economy in the world, is part of the common EU customs territory since the entering into force of the EU-Turkey Customs Union in 1996. Turkey is a founding member of the OECD since 1961, a founding member of the OSCE since 1973 and an associate member of the Western European Union since 1992. Turkey is also a founding member of the G20 industrial nations (1999) which has close ties with the European Union.

Proponents of Turkey's membership argue that it's a key regional power^[11] with a large economy and the second largest military force of NATO^[12][13] that will enhance the EU's position as a global geostrategic player; given Turkey's geographic location and economic, political, cultural and historic ties in regions with large natural resources that are at the immediate vicinity of the EU's geopolitical sphere of influence; such as the East Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, the Middle East, the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia.^[14][15]

According to Carl Bildt, Swedish foreign minister, "[The accession of Turkey] would give the EU a decisive role for stability in the eastern part of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, which is clearly in the strategic interest of Europe."^[16] One of Turkey's key supporters for its bid to join the EU is the United Kingdom. In May 2008, Queen Elizabeth II said during a visit to Turkey, that "Turkey is uniquely positioned as a bridge between the East and West at a crucial time for the European Union and the world in general."^[17]

Proponents also argue that Turkey abides by most conditions for accession. Some maintain that the EU can no longer refuse Turkey, as it has had an open candidacy for over 40 years, and has made major improvements in human rights in order to try to satisfy the entry conditions.

There are, however, numerous arguments against Turkey's accession. Opponents argue that Turkey does not respect the key principles that are expected in a liberal democracy, such as the freedom of expression, with potentially repressive laws like Article 301 (which was reformed on April 30, 2008);^[18] and because of the significant role of the army on the Turkish administrative foreground through the National Security Council; whose military-dominated structure was reformed on July 23, 2003, in line with the requests from the EU.^[19] Turkey's large population would also alter the balance of power in the representative European institutions. Upon joining the EU, Turkey's 70 million inhabitants would bestow it the second largest number of MEPs in the European Parliament.^[13] Demographic projections indicate that Turkey would surpass Germany in the number of seats by 2020.^[13] Some oppose the accession of a large Muslim country. Turkey's membership would also affect future enlargement plans, especially the number of nations seeking EU membership,^[13] grounds by which Valéry Giscard d'Estaing has opposed Turkey's admission. d'Estaing has suggested that it would lead to demands for accession by Morocco. Morocco's application is already rejected on geographic grounds, and Turkey, unlike Morocco, has territory in Europe. French President Nicholas Sarkozy (then a candidate) has stated in January 2007 that "enlarging Europe with no limit risks destroying European political union, and that I do not accept...I want to say that Europe must give itself borders, that not all countries have a vocation to become members of Europe, beginning with Turkey which has no place inside the European Union."^[20] Only a small fraction of Turkish territory lies in the common geographical definition of Europe, but this is where the country's largest city and its economic and cultural capital, Istanbul, is located. EU member Cyprus is actually located to the south of Anatolia and is geographically a part of Anatolia's continental shelf.

Another concern is that Turkey continues to occupy the northern third of the island of Cyprus, which became an EU member in 2004, with 40,000 Turkish troops stationed there since 1974. Turkey's original intention, which was declared by the Prime Minister of that period, Bülent Ecevit, was to avoid the island's annexation to Greece and to bring an end to the Cypriot intercommunal violence which took place between 1963 and 1974.^[21] Since 1974, Turkey refuses to recognise the Republic of Cyprus as the sole authority on the island, until a solution for the Cyprus dispute is found under the auspices of the United Nations. Historically though, the UN Security Council, in its Resolution 541 of 18 November 1983, has declared the occupation of northern Cyprus legally invalid and called for the withdrawal of Turkish forces.^[22] The UN-backed Annan Plan for the re-unification of Cyprus was actively supported by the EU and Turkey. However, the Annan Plan was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots at north, but was rejected by the Greek Cypriots at south, in separate referenda which took place in April 2004.

EU member states must unanimously agree to Turkish membership for Turkish accession to be successful. A number of nations could oppose it, notably Austria, which historically served as a bulwark for Christian Europe against the Ottoman Empire; and France, which is fearful of the prospect of another wave of Muslim immigrants, especially given the poor integration of its existing Muslim minority.

[edit] Potential candidate countries

The EU's relations with the Western Balkans states (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia) were moved from the "External Relations" to the "Enlargement" policy segment. These states currently are not recognised as candidate countries, but only as "potential candidate countries".^[23] This is a consequence of the advancement of the Stabilisation and Association process.

The successor states of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia), as well as Kosovo^{[citation needed]}, have all adopted EU integration as an aim of foreign policy. Slovenia joined the EU on 1 May 2004. Croatia is currently negotiating its entry. The Republic of Macedonia is recognised as an EU candidate country.

Albania in the Western Balkans was for a long period under one of the harshest communist governments in the world, which imposed on the people of Albania an international isolation similar to that of North Korea. The post communist Albanian governments have adopted EU integration as the strategic orientation of the country.

The EU signed an agreement with Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and the Republic of Macedonia on 13 April 2007, and Serbia on 15 May 2007, which included visa facilitations for the citizens of these countries. The signing EU Commissioner Franco Frattini was quoted saying that this is the first step toward a full abolishment of the visa requirements and the free movement of the Western Balkans citizens in EU. Negotiations for a visa-free travel regime with the aforementioned countries are expected to start in January 2008. ^[24]

The 2003 European Council summit in Thessaloniki set integration of the Western Balkans as a priority of EU expansion. A further meeting in Mamaia, Romania, concluded that "Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro are considered likely to join the EU between 2010 and 2015" depending on their fulfillment of the adhesion criteria.^{[citation needed]} This summit was attended by two EU members, seven countries now in the EU, and the eight EU hopefuls (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, and Ukraine). However, this summit was not linked to any EU institution, whatsoever, and the target dates and agreements presented there mainly aimed at encouraging the candidate and potential candidate countries on their way to eventual full membership into the EU.

On 9 November 2005, the European Commission suggested in a new strategy paper that the current enlargement agenda (Croatia, Turkey and the Western Balkans) could potentially block the possibility of a future accession of Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.^[25] Olli Rehn has said on occasion that the EU should "avoid overstretching our capacity, and instead consolidate our enlargement agenda," adding, "this is already a challenging agenda for our accession process."^[26]

[edit] Albania

Main article: Accession of Albania to the European Union

Albania was the first of the officially recognized Potential Candidate countries to start the negotiations of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement in 2003. This was successfully agreed and signed on 12 June 2006, completing the first major step toward Albania's full membership in the EU.

However, Albania's admission to the EU depends on the country's economic and political stability. Following the steps of the recently admitted Eastern European countries, Albania has been extensively engaged with EU institutions and NATO, and has maintained its position as a stability factor and a strong ally of Western Europe in the troubled and divided region of the Balkans.

[edit] Bosnia and Herzegovina

Main article: Accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the European Union

Bosnia and Herzegovina still has many economic as well as political problems. Recently it has been making slow but steady progress, including co-operation with the war crimes tribunal at The Hague, so the outlook is positive.

Negotiations on Stabilisation and Association Agreement started during the year 2005 and concluded December of 2007. This is the first step before making an application for candidate status and membership negotiations. The negotiations were expected to be finalised in late 2007,^[27] but due to the failure of the government to decide in time on police reform in line with EU principles they could be finalised in late 2008 at the nearest. Due to this setback and the hard-line positions of most Bosnian politicians High Representative Miroslav Lajčák has stated that he will shift more of his focus for the time being from EU accession to reforms which would improve the standard of living in the country.

The Union may show some leniency regarding its economy due to the political issues at stake. Former President of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, has stated that Bosnia has a chance of joining the EU soon after Croatia, but it is entirely dependent on the country's progress.

The SAA was initialled on Tuesday, 4th December 2007 by Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn and caretaker Prime Minister Nikola Špirić. The initialling came in the wake of successful negotiations by Miroslav Lajčák in regards to passing his new quorum rules laws and also the commitment of Bosnian and Herzegovinian politicians to implementing police reform. The SAA will be signed on 16 June, 2008 and Bosnia and Herzegovina might become an EU candidate in the spring of 2009

[edit] Kosovo

Main article: Accession of Kosovo to the European Union

As confirmed by the Thessaloniki Summit in June 2003, Kosovo is firmly anchored in the framework of the Stabilisation and Association Process, the EU policy which applies to the Western Balkans.

On 20 April 2005 the European Commission adopted the Communication on Kosovo to the Council "A European Future for Kosovo" which reinforces the Commission’s commitment to Kosovo. Furthermore, on 20 January 2006, the Council adopted a European Partnership for Serbia and Montenegro including Kosovo as defined by UNSCR1244. The European Partnership is a means to materialise the European perspective of the Western Balkan countries within the framework of the stabilisation and association process.

The Provisional Institutions of Self Government (PISG) adopted in August 2006 an Action Plan for the Implementation of the European Partnership and this document forms the current working basis between the EU and the PISG. The PISG regularly report on the implementation of this action plan. Twelve meetings of the so-called "SAP Tracking Mechanism" (STM), specially devised to promote policy dialogue between the EU and the Kosovan authorities on EU approximation matters have taken place so far. In addition, a new structure of sectoral meetings under the umbrella of the STM was established in the areas of good governance, economy, internal market, innovation and infrastructure in March 2007. ^[28]

[edit] Montenegro

Main article: Accession of Montenegro to the European Union

In the independence referendum of May 21, 2006, the Montenegrin people voted for Montenegro to leave the state union of Serbia and Montenegro and become an independent state. It is not yet clear how this will affect Europe's second newest independent state but it is believed that negotiations with the EU will allow quick implementation of an SAA agreement and speedier entry to the club of European nations than had it stayed tied to Serbia's EU bid. Montenegro is experiencing ecological, judicial and crime-related problems that may hinder its bid. Montenegro has unilaterally adopted the euro as its currency since its launch in 2002, and before that had used the German mark. SAA negotiations started in September 2006.^[29] The Agreement was initialled on 15 March 2007 and officially signed on 15 October 2007. Recent press reports indicate that Montenegro seeks EU-candidate status in the first half of 2008. [3]

[edit] Serbia

Main article: Accession of Serbia to the European Union

Serbia has to deal with the staunch disagreement concerning the unilateral independence of Kosovo. Serbia began the reform process in 2000, back then as part of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

The government of Serbia wants to prepare the country for EU accession between 2012 and 2015. However, it seems much more likely that it would happen around 2015 due to many domestic problems and extensive reforms that should be implemented, and the current institutional crisis in the EU. Negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement started in November 2005.

The fact that accused war criminals Radovan Karadžić and Ratko Mladić still have not been captured is an obstruction in these negotiations. On May 3 2006, the European Union suspended SAA talks with Serbia over its failure to arrest Ratko Mladić. This is likely to severely hinder the pace of EU entry and the reform process in Serbia. In July 2006, an action plan for the arrest of Ratko Mladić was issued by the government, aimed to locate and bring the former general to justice, which is expected to improve relations with EU. Subject to resolving this issue, SAA negotiations are expected to conclude in 2007.^[27] Likewise, on June 13 2007 the association talks between Serbia and the EU have resumed.^[30]

On 7 November 2007 Serbia initialed an SAA with the European Union, i.e. agreed on the final version of the text to which no or little changes are to be made, which is the step immediately preceding the official signing that is expected to take place in 2008. This is a milestone in Serbia's accession negotiations, and was executed following the advice of chief war crimes prosecutor Carla Del Ponte which advised the EU that the country was complying adequately with the tribunal, though that Ratko Mladić must be in The Hague prior to any official signing being able to take place.^[31]

On April 29, 2008 Serbian officials signed the association treaty with the EU,^[32] and the Serbian President seeks official candidate status by the end of 2008.^[33]

[edit] Progress of future enlargements

It was previously the norm for enlargements to see multiple entrants join the Union at once. The only previous enlargement of a single state was the 1981 admission of Greece.

However, EU members have warned that, following the significant impact of the fifth enlargement in 2004, a more individual approach will be adopted in the future, although the entry of pairs or small groups of countries may yet coincide. Croatia may be expected to join first, possibly around 2010, Macedonia possibly around 2012, and Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey following, either together or in smaller groups.

The timing of smaller-wave enlargements is subject to many variables and the dates given in the table below are the earliest possible ones - procedures do not allow speedier admission in most cases (for example, it takes at least two years to move from a membership application to the start of negotiations).

¹ Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) for the Western Balkans states, Association Agreement and Customs Union for Turkey, Europe Agreement for the reference states.
² Including anti-discrimination and equal opportunities for men and women.
³ Bosnia & Herzegovina initialled the SAA in 2007 but is, due to translation difficulties, yet to sign it.

[edit] Future enlargement possibilities

In the Treaty of Maastricht (Article 49), it is stated that any European country that respects the principles of the European Union may apply to join. The Copenhagen European Council set out the conditions for EU membership in June 1993 in the so-called Copenhagen criteria. Whether a country is European or not is a subject to political assessment by the EU institutions, but countries in the Council of Europe that fall onto the border between Europe and Asia all have a significant claim for EU membership, as shown with the accession of geographically Asian, but culturally European, Cyprus.

The European Union has tended to enlarge along regional lines, adding groups of nearby nations. Currently, the EU is very interested in the integration of the Balkan states. Of Eastern Europe, Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform has said, "Belarus is too authoritarian, Moldova too poor, Ukraine too large, and Russia too scary for the EU to contemplate offering membership any time soon."^[34] Due to the 2004 "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, and the 2003 "Rose Revolution" in Georgia, both countries have started and already implemented extensive reform programs, and the perspectives for both countries have become more positive.^{[citation needed]} Armenia has also shown interest in joining the EU.

The following sections discuss the situation of those states and entities concerning which the issue of EU membership has been discussed in official circles.

[edit] The European Free Trade Association

[edit] Switzerland

Main article: Switzerland and the European Union

Switzerland took part in negotiating the EEA agreement with the EU and signed the agreement on 2 May 1992 and submitted an application for accession to the EU on 20 May 1992. A Swiss referendum held on 6 December 1992 rejected EEA membership. As a consequence, the Swiss Government decided to suspend negotiations for EU accession until further notice, but its application remains open. The popular initiative entitled "Yes to Europe!", calling for the opening of immediate negotiations for EU membership, was rejected in a 4 March 2001 referendum. The Swiss Federal Council (which is in favour of EU membership) had advised the population to vote against this referendum since the preconditions for the opening of negotiations had not been met. It is thought that the fear of a loss of neutrality and independence is the key issue against membership among eurosceptics. EU membership however continues to be the objective of the government and is a "long-term aim" of the Federal Council. Furthermore, the Swiss population agreed to their country's participation in the Schengen Agreement. As a result of that, Switzerland plans to join the area on November 2008.

The Swiss federal government policy has recently undergone substantial U-turns in policy, however, concerning specific agreements with the EU on freedom of movement for people, workers and areas concerning tax evasion have been addressed within the Swiss banking system. This was a result of the first Switzerland-EU summit in May 2004 where nine bilateral agreements were signed. Romano Prodi, former President of the European Commission, said the agreements "moved Switzerland closer to Europe." Joseph Deiss of the Swiss Federal Council said, "We might not be at the very centre of Europe but we're definitely at the heart of Europe". He continued, "We're beginning a new era of relations between our two entities." [5]

[edit] Norway

Main article: Norway and the European Union

Norway, per capita the second richest country in the world, is, like most other Scandinavian states, reluctant to surrender sovereignty to a supranational entity. The Norwegian government also wishes to keep control of oil, gas and fishery resources in their territorial waters. Norway has applied four times for EEC and EU membership. In 1962 and 1967 France vetoed Norway's entry, while the later 1972 referendum and the 1994 referendum were both lost by the government. In late 2004, then Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik suggested that the debate about joining the EU might be restarted in 2007. The 2005 constitution referendums in France and the Netherlands have however made this less likely, and in mid-October 2005, after the elections, the new Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg stated that there would not be a new attempt at EU membership under his government.

A large issue for Norway is its fishing resources, which are a significant part of the economy of Norway and which would come under the Common Fisheries Policy if Norway joins the European Union. Norway has high GNP per capita, not so much agriculture, and few underdeveloped areas, meaning they would have to pay a lot to the budget and get little back from the union. However, Norway annually loses out on €180 million by not being an EU member, according to reports by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.^[35]High seas fishermen especially would gain from membership as the cost of entering the EU market would disappear and they would be able to fish in all EU waters.

Thorbjørn Jagland, President of the Parliament, has proposed that Norway and Iceland should prepare a common strategy before launching membership negotiations with the EU. His Icelandic counterpart has expressed agreement.

Norway is also a member of the European Economic Area (the EU common market), the Schengen treaty and an associate member of the Western European Union as well as other areas normally considered as under the EU umbrella of treaties and agreements. Norway has been a member of NATO since 1949.

Further reading: *History of Norway-EU relations from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

[edit] Iceland

Main article: Iceland and the European Union

Iceland has never applied for EU membership but is already associated with the union through the EEA where it has access to the Single market. Iceland is also a member of the Schengen treaty and has expressed interest in joining the euro whilst still remaining outside the EU.

Like in Norway, fear of losing control over the fishery resources in its territorial waters is the single largest issue keeping Iceland reluctant to join the EU. Since these two countries have so much in common it is generally expected that they would join together, as it would not be easy for Iceland to be the only Nordic country to remain outside the EU. The government has established a committee to look into ways to protect fishing privileges in case of an EU accession.

Application for EU membership is not on the current centre-right government's agenda, and none of the political parties have explicitly expressed that Iceland should join the union although the Alliance remains in favour of negotiations. The Left-Green Movement has been firmly opposed to membership and the same goes for the conservative Independence Party, a member of the ruling coalition, although its former chairman Davíð Oddsson indicated in a speech in January 2005 that a policy change was not ruled out depending on how the EU will evolve in coming years.

Former Prime Minister Halldór Ásgrímsson of the Progressive Party has predicted that Iceland will join the EU by 2015, and said that the decisive factor for Iceland would be the future and the size of the Eurozone. He admitted however that the right political situation doesn't exist at the moment to take a decision on the issue.^[36]

[edit] Liechtenstein

Main article: Liechtenstein and the European Union

Liechtenstein is, like Norway and Iceland, a member of the European Economic Area. It might consider joining the EU if Switzerland joins. If it attained membership it would be by far the smallest member state.

[edit] Former Soviet republics

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the former Soviet republics of Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus have been looked upon as potential candidates for EU enlargement. All are or have been closely linked to Russia and would need to concentrate more on other European partners to attain candidate membership. Russia itself has also been brought up for consideration as well as Kazakhstan (which has a portion of its western territory in Eastern Europe). However, these states will probably remain outside the Union, at least for a significant amount of time. They are not currently on any enlargement agenda as the Union is currently focused on the Balkan states and Turkey.

A summit in Mamaia, Eastern Romania, in May 2004 showed enlargement to Eastern Europe to be a definite possibility, though only Ukraine and Moldova were present, as Belarus is currently not concerned with membership.

The South Caucasus states of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan have been the site of much instability in the 1990s. Currently, there seems to be a feeling of hope in the region's future. Their EU membership would be conditional on the political assessment by the European Council about whether or not they are considered European. Nevertheless all three states are admitted as full members into the Council of Europe (like Cyprus) after similar assessment process. Before the first official visit of external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner to the three Caucasus states, it was stated that if she were asked about enlargement, she would not rule it out.[6] It is unclear as to when they may move towards membership but they are part of the European Neighbourhood Policy and are often referred to as part of "a wider Europe". Since their only land contact with European states is through Russia and Turkey, it is possible that they would only join after Turkey did so first. However, on January 12, 2002, the European Parliament noted that Armenia and Georgia may enter the EU in the future regardless.^[37]

[edit] Ukraine

Main article: Ukraine and the European Union

Many political factions of Ukraine advocate joining the EU and developing ties with Europe. Some in the EU are more doubtful concerning Ukraine's prospects. In 2002, EU Expansion Commissioner Günter Verheugen said that "a European perspective" for Ukraine does not necessarily mean membership in 10 or 20 years, however, that does not mean it is not a possibility. A Ukraine-EU Troika meeting in April 2004, on the eve of the newest wave of expansion, dealt a blow to Ukraine's European aspiration when the EU ministers failed to grant market economy status to Ukraine; however, this was before the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.

For the time being, Ukraine will most likely develop intermediate relations with the EU as it is strongly backed by all major political forces in Poland, an EU member with strong historical ties with Ukraine (through the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth).

The Orange Revolution of late 2004 improved Ukraine's European prospects: Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko hinted that he would press the EU for deep